MEFMI Raises Awareness on Impact of COVID-19 on Macroeconomic Statistics

The disruption caused by COVID-19 have posed uncommon challenges on data collection, compilation, dissemination and forecasting of key macroeconomic indicators. The increasing spread of the pandemic has prompted most governments in the MEFMI region to introduce unprecedented measures to contain its further spread. Response measures have led to extended lockdowns that are among other issues characterised by widespread restrictions on travel and mobility, financial market turmoil, erosion of confidence and heightened uncertainty regarding the future of economic activity.

Amid the lock-downs, officials in national statistical offices in MEFMI member countries and other data agencies adopted remote working. Most have limited access to data collection instruments needed to produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics. Many are not able to perform physical visits to sampled companies and businesses that are also on lock-down. Further, most companies and businesses are also unable to complete routine statistics survey questionnaires remotely.

The COVID-19 induced data collection and production disruptions imply that data on prices and production, which are critical for crafting monetary and fiscal stimulus measures could suffer from data dissemination delays or be estimated based on incomplete information. COVID-19 has also disrupted attempts by governments to produce high frequency data, an agenda that countries had started working on before the pandemic. Above all and at least in the interim, forecasting units in member countries are not able to produce accurate forecasts amid the significant data disruptions.

As part of its support to the member countries, MEFMI hosted a webinar on COVID-19 and macroeconomic statistics on 29 July 2020. The main objective of the webinar was to discuss data collection challenges posed by COVID-19, identify new data collection and compilation strategies given remote working conditions as well as to explore innovative data collection methods and data sources. Implications of data collection challenges on macroeconomic forecasting were also discussed.

The webinar raised awareness on fundamental considerations on data collection, compilation, dissemination and forecasting of key macroeconomic indicators. It also looked at new data collection and compilation strategies, given remote working conditions, as well as exploring innovative data collection methods and sources. Regional case studies from Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Zambia and United States where presented on how statisticians are coping during COVID-19 pandemic.  These case studies allowed participants to learn how peer countries are coping with challenges induced by the COVID-19. Going forward, MEFMI plans to provide in-country technical assistance to member countries in this area to deal with issues discussed in sufficient detail and relevant policy advice given based on country-specific circumstances.

A total of 105 officials drawn from 12 MEFMI member countries including eight (8) from MEFMI Cooperating Partners at the IMF, African Development Bank (AfDB) and the East African Community (EAC) participated in the webinar.  The resource persons team consisted of Dr Anna Lennblad (former economist at the IMF, and a Director-General at the Central Bank of Seychelles), Dr Fred Kakongoro Muhumuza (Development Policy Researcher and Lecturer – Kyambogo University and School of Business and Ethics, Uganda), Ms Roza Mamuye Bora (Senior Statistician, Statistics Department – AfDB) and  Ms Pamela Achieng Audi (Economist/Statistician  and a former employee at Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis and IMF East AFRITAC).

Prepared by Senei Molapo