Introductory On-line Course Conducted – Quarterly GDP, Economic Activity Indicators and Unobserved Economy

MEFMI countries have embarked on processes to produce and disseminate more frequent and comprehensive data, among other statistical matters. This includes release of quarterly national accounts which provide a comprehensive and consistent set of statistics that allow assessment of economic performance. In addition, there is still considerable lack of scientific mechanisms for estimating economic activity before actual data is released by statistical offices, which is usually done with a considerable time lag.

Even where statistical offices meet the 90-day international standard of producing and releasing quarterly national accounts, Central Banks and Ministries of Finance need early estimates of economic activity for the current year, for forward looking purposes. Composite Economic Activity Indicators are increasingly recognised as useful tools in policy analysis and public economic communication. The main purpose of constructing and producing economic composite indicators has been a search for early warning indicators, such as leading or coincident indicators as measures of cyclical turnings points.

In absolute and in relative terms, the size of the non-observed economy varies across countries. As a percentage of the total economy, it tends to be larger in developing countries and, therefore, its exclusion would likely result in erroneous growth rates. In this regard, inadequate coverage of the non-observed economy yields a skewed picture of the structure of the economy in terms of the role it plays in employment creation, income generation and poverty alleviation. There is therefore, a need for critical capacity to produce quarterly national accounts and improved quality of statistics in line with latest international compilation and reporting standards including emerging issues.

In response to the capacity challenges faced by its member countries, MEFMI conducted an online course on Introduction to Quarterly GDP, Economic Activity Indicators and Unobserved Economy from 14 October to 15 November 2019 for middle to senior level officials involved in compilation and analysis of national accounts, policy formulation, analysis and decision making from Central Banks, Ministries of Finance and/or Planning, and National Statistics Offices.

The main objective of this training was to introduce a framework for early indicators of GDP using a set of high frequency indicators, indices of perception and non-survey methods. The course aimed at introducing a standardised method for measuring non-observed economic activities, forecasting GDP and compiling quarterly GDP. Since this was an introductory course, it also aimed to be a building block for an advanced Joint MEFMI/East AFRITAC course on Quarterly GDP, Economic Activity Indicators and Unobserved Economy from 2-6 March 2020.

The total number of enrolled participants was 66 with a completion rate of 95 percent. The participants were drawn from Ministries of Finance, National Statistics Offices, as well as Central Banks in the MEFMI region.