MEFMI Trains Botswana Officials in Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

MEFMI conducted an in-country workshop on modelling and forecasting for officials of the Research Department, of the Ministry of Finance as well as other relevant departments, which are involved in economic policy analysis, from 3 to 11 October 2023 in Gaborone, Botswana.

The Ministry of Finance of Botswana is responsible for developing sound macroeconomic policies and prudent financial management. To strengthen these roles, the ministry recently established a dedicated Research Department to focus on macroeconomic modelling and forecasting, economic research, and other related functions. The research department staff include both fresh university graduates and experienced staff, some of whom previously worked in departments that did not focus on modelling and forecasting.

The main objective of this training was to bolster the theoretical and practical competence of the participants, enabling them to estimate, evaluate, and interpret econometric time series models in the EViews software environment. The workshop was designed to cover a spectrum of techniques in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting to cultivate and reinforce the participants’ understanding and application of standard econometric methodologies. The areas covered included the analysis of data properties, data processing and transformation, different macroeconomic forecasting methods, diagnosing the relative predictive capability of macroeconomic forecasting models, the significance of the results, and the intricacies of estimation and inference in AR, ARIMA and VAR models.  Upon completion of this workshop, MEFMI anticipates that the participants will have acquired the requisite skills needed to construct a macroeconomic model within the EViews software.  Moreover, they will possess a deeper and more nuanced understanding of policy analysis, which will enable them to make more informed and effective contributions to the ministry’s work.

A total of 22 officials from the Ministry of Finance’s Research, Monetary Policy Analysis, Development Programmes and Budget Analysis and Debt Management Departments attended the workshop. Of the 22 participants, 18 (82%) were female while 4 (18%) were male. The workshop was facilitated by Dr. Laban Chesang from Daystar University in Kenya, Mr. Wilson Asiimwe from the Ministry of Finance of Uganda, and Dr. Frank Chansa from MEFMI.

Prepared by Frank Chansa.