Background
During the Phase VI period (2022–2026), MEFMI prioritised compilation of high frequency data to assist in economic modelling and forecasting, especially in crisis periods. High-frequency data paints a more detailed picture of the economic impact of the pandemic and breadth of the recovery. Seasonal adjustment serves to facilitate an understanding of the development of the economy over time, that is, the direction and magnitude of changes that have taken place. Such understanding can be best pursued through the analyses of time series. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing seasonal and calendar effects from a time series. One major reason for compiling high-frequency statistics is to allow timely identification of changes in the business cycle, particularly turning points. Trend-cycle data represent a smoothed version of a seasonally adjusted time series. They provide information on longer-term movements, including changes in direction underlying the series. As part of this effort, MEFMI will deliver a virtual seminar on seasonally adjusted data and trend-cycle estimates.

Objective
To enhance knowledge of the participants on seasonally adjusted data and trend-cycle estimates.

Content
The seminar will cover the following:
• Principles of Seasonal Adjustment.
• Seasonal Adjustment Programs.
• Estimation of other parts of the seasonal component and other calendar-related effects.
• Seasonal Adjustment Diagnostics.
• Issues in Seasonality; and
• Critical Issues in Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts (QNA).

Target Group
The intended audience includes junior to middle level staff involved in macroeconomic statistics compilation and analysis from central banks, statistics offices and ministries of finance and planning.