BACKGROUND

Price stability is one of the core objectives of modern central banks around the world, including the MEFMI region. Accordingly, predicting the future course of inflation in a precise manner is an important element of achieving this objective, especially in an inflation targeting environment. Accurate forecasts of future inflation are dependent, among others, on precise information regarding current inflation, as well as good forecasts of short-term inflation developments. The short-term inflation forecast (STIF) therefore can help central banks to understand current price dynamics and also serves as a useful cross-check with other types of macro models that contribute to monetary policy decisions. To undertake this role effectively, central banks require cross-dimensional skills such as data analysis, building relevant macroeconomic tools and generating consistent inflation forecasts. They also require close coordination with data collection agencies and other economic institutions in order to tell a coherent economic story. MEFMI will, therefore, conduct a virtual seminar on Short Term Inflation Forecasting to support member countries in this regard. It is expected that the seminar will provide policymakers with a good understanding of STIF to support price stability.

OBJECTIVES

To equip participants with skills to undertake a bottom-up forecast of inflation by projecting components of the CPI basket.